[1364]マーケットのパニックに備えよｂｙジムロジャース
ジム・ロジャースの最新インタビューです。重要なところだけ、訳を加えました。
Prepare for market panic（マーケットのパニックに備えよ）
Astute investor, Jim Rogers has warned overnight in an interview with Tara Joseph of Reuters that oil and gold will go much, much higher” due to “market panic” regarding Syria and the coming “end of free money”:
Jim Rogers: Well, Tara, I own oil, I own gold, I own things like that and if there is going to be a war, and it sounds like America is desperate to have a war, they’re gonna go much, much higher.
（もし戦争になったら、アメリカは戦争したくて必死のようですから、石油と金はもっともっとあがるでしょう）
Stocks are gonna go down, some of the markets that I’m sure are already going down, commodities are gonna go up. I mean, yeah, some of the things I own all make a lot of money. It’s, I’m not particularly keen on war, I assure you, but it sounds like they want it.
Tara Joseph: Is your main concern about supply chain disruptions for oil? Is that where we’ll see the biggest moves?
Jim Rogers: Well, that’s where we’ll see huge moves but the problem with war, Tara, is — and I’m not the first to know this — no matter how well the plans are made, strange things happen in war and who knows what unintended consequences will come.
（どんなに計画をねっても、戦争ではわけのわからないことが起き、誰もこの予期しない結果がなんだかわからないのです。）
But I do know that throughout history whenever you had war, things like food prices have gone up a lot, energy prices have gone up a lot, copper price, lead prices: you know, all of these things go up a lot whenever there’s been a war in the past.
TJ: Meanwhile, moving farther to the Far East, we’re seeing of a mini crisis around Asia. The Fed stimulus unwinding really affecting confidence in India and Indonesia in particular. Do you think this is a short-term blip or do you think these countries face very rough waters ahead?
Jim Rogers: Of course they face rough waters ahead, Tara. You know, India and Indonesia – Turkey too, which is part of Asia – all of them have huge balance of trade deficits, which they’ve been able to finance with all this artificial free money that’s been floating around. Now, the artificial sea of liquidity is going to end some day and when it ends, all the people depending on this free money and this sea of liquidity are gonna suffer.
（今、人為的につくられたお金の流動性の海がいつか終わるでしょう、そしてそれが終わる時、この「フリーなお金」と流動性の海に依存していたすべての人びとが逆にひどい目にあうことになります。）
Whether its this week or this year or next year, they’re all going to suffer.
TJ: We’re already, though, Jim seeing sort of the unwinding of what happens when there’s fears of that stimulus coming out. What’s next for these countries? Where does it go from here?
Jim Rogers: Tara, we, we haven’t seen much of anything yet. I mean, normally, in bear markets things go down 40% to 80% and people give up. They throw the shares out the window and they say, “I never want to invest again as long as I live.” Sure, we’ve seen some declines. Have we seen panic, have we seen terror? Absolutely not. Not in any markets yet.
TJ: Are you expecting panic? We’ve seen mini crises do you see more panic?
Jim Rogers: Yes, of course. When, when, when this artificial sea of liquidity ends we’re gonna see panic in a lot of markets, including in the US, including in West developed markets.I mean, Tara, this is the first time in recorded history that all major central banks have been flooding the market with artificial money printing at the same time. They’ve all been trying to debase their currencies at the same time. This has never happened in recorded history. When this ends its gonna be a huge mess.
（この人為的につくられたお金の流動性の海がなくなる時、アメリカ、西側の先進国を含めて、多くの市場はパニックに陥ります。すべての中央銀行が、同時に市場にお金をジャブジャブにあふれさせている、これは歴史上最初のことなんです。自分たちの通貨の質を同時に下げている、こんなことは今までありませんでした。だから、これが終わる時にはめちゃくちゃな混乱が起きるでしょう。）